Back
to the previous page
Michael L. Haxton
6/29/95
Armenians in Azerbaijan
Overview
The histories of the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples is connected
by nearly a century of spilt blood and ethnic hatred which has resulted
largely from Czarist Russian and Soviet imperial policies.
The Armenians
The history of the Armenian people goes back approximately 3,000
years. "Historic" Armenia (the area traditionally inhabited
and, for very brief periods of time, ruled by Armenians) encompasses
the eastern-most part of Turkey, southern Georgia, Armenia, most of
Azerbaijan and northwestern Iran -- approximately 100,000 square miles.
It is uncertain whether the Armenian people were the original inhabitants
of this area or were migrants from Europe and Mesopotamia. The Armenian
language has developed from a very early form of Indo-European and
the alphabet was developed around 400 A.D. largely out of fear of
losing their Armenian identity after being partitioned by the Byzantine
and Persian empires. The uniqueness of the alphabet and language along
with the Armenian religion have allowed the Armenian culture to survive
for 3,000 years in the face of nearly constant occupation and foreign
rule.
In the third century A.D., the Armenian dynasty adopted Christianity
in order to limit the influence of the Iranian resurgence of the Zoroastrian
religion. This resulted in an invasion of Armenia and the destruction
of their capital. Rome intervened on behalf of the Armenians leading
to the eventual division and subjugation of Armenia to Rome (Byzantium)
and Iran. The adoption and strong adherence to the Armenian Church
has distinguished the Armenian people and has contributed both to
their history of genocide at the hands of the Turks and to their close
historical ties with Russia.
After repeated episodes of rebellion, independence and reconquest,
the last of the Armenian kingdoms was conquered by the Arabs (Mamelukes)
in 1375. The only remaining autonomous pockets of Armenians were in
Karabakh (Karabagh) and Zangezour, both in eastern "historic"
Armenia (present-day Azerbaijan and southern Armenia), and Sasun and
Zeitun, both in western "historic" Armenia (present-day
Turkey). Over the next four centuries, the Armenians emigrated in
large numbers throughout Europe and central Asia (both voluntarily
and by force).
In 1639, the Iranians and Ottomans partitioned "historic"
Armenia into western, Turkish Armenia (about 2/3 of the Armenian lands)
and eastern, Iranian Armenia (the remaining 1/3). This remained stable
until the beginning of the 19th century when Russia (claiming its
role as protector of Orthodox Christians) invaded and conquered eastern
Armenia and made it part of Russia. Over the next century, Armenians
in Russia came to fare much better than their brethren under Ottoman
control. Armenians throughout the Transcaucasus came to wield considerable
economic and political power. By 1878, they held ministerial posts
and high ranking positions in the army of czarist Russia. They used
this power to petition for Russia to press the Ottomans to improve
the condition of Armenians in Turkey (who were mostly peasants). When
their desires were frustrated by Great Power politics, they became
politically active as a group for the first time.
The political mobilization of the Armenians angered the Russian
authorities. One of the responses of the czarist officials was to
provoke a conflict between the Armenians and their Azeri neighbors.
From 1905 to 1907, the two sides fought openly in the "Tatar-Armenian"
wars. Armenians under Turkish rule fared no better, 1915 brought what
is known to all Armenians as the "Genocide." Between one
and one and a half million Armenians are said to have died in executions
and a forced march from Turkey to Syria. This effectively wiped out
the Armenian population of western "historic" Armenia.
Beginning in 1918, Armenia experienced a brief period of independence,
but this ended in 1920 when the entire Transcaucasus region was invaded
by the Soviets and incorporated into the Soviet Union. The Soviet
authorities kept Karabakh and Ganja in Azerbaijan, and made Nakhichevan
(traditionally a part of Persian Armenia) an Azerbaijani enclave.
Most of the rest of "historical" Armenia (including Mount
Ararat, one of the most important Armenian landmarks) was carved up
between Georgia and Turkey. The area which eventually became the Armenian
SSR was based on the administrative district of Erevan, an extremely
backward and impoverished area. Most Armenian wealth was located in
the cities of Tbilisi and Baku, thus Armenia became the smallest and
least influential of the Soviet republics. Karabakh was given the
status of an autonomous oblast and Nakhichevan was made an autonomous
republic, both constituent to Azerbaijan.
The Armenians who had traditionally backed the Czars, resisted the
Bolsheviks initially. This resistance was centered in Karabakh and
may explain in part the retention of Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan.
Through Soviet rule, the Armenian economy was transformed from agriculture
to industry and the Soviet authorities under Stalin made every attempt
to break Armenian culture and heritage. Despite this, Armenian culture
survived and prospered, 99% of ethnic Armenians listed Armenian as
their primary language. Additionally, Armenia as a whole prospered,
their per capita income was higher than that for the Soviet Union
as a whole and 70% of Armenians were urban. As a result of their prosperity,
despite the early hardships suffered under Stalin, Armenians continued
to be very pro-Russian.
The Azeris
The people of Azerbaijan are composed of three subgroups, each of
which maintains a strong sense of individual identity: the Airum (living
mainly in western Azerbaijan), Padar (living mainly in eastern Azerbaijan)
and the Shahseven (straddling the Iranian border). All of these subgroups
speak various dialects of Azeri, a Turkic language. As of the early
1990s, only approximately six million of the 18 million Azeris living
in the world, lived in Azerbaijan. Azeri culture is a result of the
intermingling of Turkic and Persian cultures.
Persia dominated Azerbaijan culturally, if not politically, from
the 6th century B.C. until the Turkic invasions of the 9th century
A.D. The Turkic culture dominated Azerbaijan from the 9th to the 11th
century A.D. except in the area of religion where Azerbaijanis adopted
Shi'ism rather than the Sunni sect. Persia continued to influence
the area politically and culturally through invasions and reconquest
until it subsided as a great power. It regained control in the 11th
century and did not relinquish control until the accession of Russian
imperialism in the 18th century. Rural Azeris have since then identified
more closely to Iran and their religious heritage than to Turkey and
their linguistic heritage.
Peter the Great annexed the northern portion of Azerbaijan in 1724,
but Persia regained it in 1736. Russia and Persia divided Azerbaijan
by the treaties of Gulestan and Turkmanchai (1813 and 1828 respectively).
Russian rule gave little to the Azerbaijanis as czarist policy was
to extract the maximum from the land and people of Azerbaijan. Ethnic
Azeris were a minority in Baku and held only menial jobs resulting
in both ethnic and ideological resentment. Similar circumstances prevailed
in the other urban centers of Azerbaijan. This led to Azerbaijan becoming
an early center of Communist agitation and organization. With the
fall of czarist control, Azerbaijanis became embroiled in ethnic and
ideological conflicts with both Russians and Armenians as the targets
of their frustrations.
While the Russians were embroiled in the civil war, the Azeris attempted
to establish their independence. While both the Ottoman and Persian
empires had designs on Azerbaijan in 1918, neither could act. By 1920,
the Bolsheviks had consolidated their power sufficiently to invade
Azerbaijan and without international support, Azerbaijan became a
part of the USSR.
Under Stalin, political lines were drawn across ethnic lines as
a tool for controlling the nationalist aspirations of the republics.
Azerbaijan was drawn to include a strong ethnic Armenian enclave and
to be separated from Nakhichevan by southern Armenia (Zangezour).
Azeri nationalism was controlled also by lessening the influence of
Islam. Through a literacy (education) program and the co-option of
modernist Islamic leaders, Azerbaijani nationalism was held in check
for decades. In addition to limiting Islam's influence, Soviet authorities
pressed to assimilate Azeris to Russian culture. This was given the
utmost importance due to the strong nationalist ideals, and the extreme
importance of Azerbaijan's oil and cotton production to Soviet industrialization.
During World War II, Soviet expansionist aims sought to utilize
the purported affluence of Soviet Azerbaijan to stoke Azerbaijani
nationalism in northern Iran which it occupied for a time. These efforts
failed as the Allied powers forced a Soviet withdrawal from northern
Iran and Iranian authorities quickly re-established control despite
Soviet attempts to the contrary.
The economic advances experienced by the Soviet Union were not universally
shared. In fact, Azeris in general did not experience nearly the same
increase in living standards that the Russians and Armenians living
in urban Azerbaijan did. As a whole, Azerbaijan did not benefit as
much as the majority of Soviet republics. The quickly growing Azeri
population also created land pressures in Azerbaijan which has contributed
to ethnic resentment against Armenians and Russians.
Back
to the previous page
The nationalists in Azerbaijan organized around their Turkic heritage
calling for unification of all Turkic peoples of the Soviet Union
with Turkey. This brand of nationalism is said to have limited appeal
to rural Azeris, especially in the south, where their Shi'ite religion
has drawn them closer to Iran. However, Turkic nationalism is the
leading force in Baku and has undoubtedly contributed to the conflict
with the Armenians given the historical enmity between Armenians and
Turkey (viz. the 1915 massacre and forced exodus of Armenians under
the Ottomans).
Throughout the period of Soviet rule the question of Karabakh festered
for Armenians. Tensions rose in the early 1960s and in 1968, clashes
erupted between Armenians and Azeris in Stepanakert (the capital of
Nagorno-Karabakh). Armenians feared that the Armenian character of
Karabakh would disappear as it had in Nakhichevan over the decades.
The Armenian population in Nakhichevan had all but disappeared and
all of the Armenian monuments there were systematically removed (and
reportedly destroyed) by the Azerbaijani authorities. Nagorno Karabakh
had a 74% Armenian majority in 1979, but received no Armenian television
broadcasts and had no Armenian institution of higher learning during
Soviet rule.
To most Armenians, Karabakh was the most vital issue of the glasnost
era. The Azerbaijani control of Karabakh represented the continuing
subjugation of Armenians by Turks (as Armenians tend to see all Azeris
as Turks) and ultimately would lead to calls for overarching political
reform in the Soviet Union. The complaints from Armenians in Karabakh
centered on the perennial lack of economic investment in the oblast
by Baku (which in turn was restricted to limit economic ties with
Armenia) and the lack of cultural ties with Armenia allowed. These
complaints had been made for nearly three decades, but to no avail.
Azerbaijani authorities were not interested in promoting an Armenian
enclave given the ethnic animosity.
As early as 1974, the National Unity Party of Armenia was demanding
that all Armenian lands be united (including those in Turkey and Azerbaijan).
In 1987, Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh (dissidents known as the Karabakh
Committee which was led by Levon Ter-Petrossian and became the National
Democratic Union in Armenia in 1991) organized a petition drive and
on February 28, 1988, the Karabakh Soviet of People's Deputies passed
a resolution supporting the transfer of Karabakh to Armenian control.
A million Armenians marched in Erevan in support of the transfer and
Gorbachev promised action on the issue.
As the crisis escalated, the Armenian Communists lost their credibility
with the people of Karabakh and Armenia and the Armenian leadership
began to call for wholesale political change in Moscow and Erevan.
The Karabakh Committee completely broke with the Armenian authorities,
criticizing their acceptance of the Moscow decision. In May, the committee
called new strikes and other disturbances in Karabakh.
The fighting between Armenians in Karabakh and Azerbaijan continues
today. The early fighting around Karabakh was dominated by the Azerbaijani
government forces, a counter-offensive in 1991 turned the tide opening
a corridor between Karabakh and Armenia. Azerbaijan charges Armenia
with not only supplying the separatists, but with providing troops
to fight on their side.
Chronology
February 1988: The regional soviet of Nagorno-Karabakh
officially requests to be transferred to the sovereignty of Armenia.
Azerbaijan refuses and demonstrations in Nagorno-Karabakh and Erevan
lead to clashes between Azeris and Armenians in Azerbaijan. The most
serious of these is a "pogrom" in the industrial town of
Sumgait (near Baku) in which at least 26 Armenians and 6 Azeris are
reported to have been killed.
Attacks on Azeris in Erevan escalate markedly and the Armenian government
fails to pursue and prosecute most of the perpetrators of the attacks.
As a result, the violence against Azeris in Armenia escalates and
the exodus of Azeris begins. Meanwhile, violence in Azerbaijan against
Armenians, especially in Baku, escalates as well. Clashes and mass
brawls reportedly become frequent events.
The increasing numbers of Azeri refugees in Baku and other urban
areas contribute to the increasing levels of violence in Azerbaijan.
December 1988: A massive earthquake hits Armenia killing
25,000 people and leaving 500,000 more homeless. It devastates over
a third of the Armenian Republic. In the ensuing relief effort, Azerbaijan
continues to block all shipments into Armenia.
In response to what Azerbaijan authorities saw as attempts to annex
Karabakh, Azerbaijan moved to punish Armenia and Armenians by firing
Armenian workers and expelling them from their homes in Azerbaijan.
Anti-Armenian violence followed and became widespread and uncontrollable.
In Sumgait (near Baku) the violence exploded; official reports placed
the death toll at 32 (26 of whom were Armenian) with over 100 injured,
but Armenians claim the death toll was much higher -- in the hundreds.
There also were reports of many less severe attacks on Armenians elsewhere,
and of similar attacks by Armenians on Azeris in Karabakh and Armenia
in the wake of what Armenians called a "pogrom."
In the aftermath, nearly all of the 160,000 Azeris in rural Armenia
fled to Azerbaijani territory and 40,000 or more Armenians fled Azeri-dominated
areas of Azerbaijan. Likewise, Armenians outside Karabakh fled to
either Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia or Russia (Armenians in Erevan severely
discriminated against Baku Armenians).
January 1989: Moscow moves to regain control
over the area by imposing direct rule on Nagorno-Karabakh and Baku,
dispatching Interior Ministry troops.
The immediate response from Moscow was to promise an economic initiative
and provide Armenian broadcasts to the oblast.
Clashes between Armenians and Azeris continue. The Soviet troops
have little effect. Three Russian troops of the Interior Ministry
are killed protecting a group of Armenians from a mob of Azeris.
Fall 1989: Azeri citizens and the Azerbaijani Popular Front
organize strikes to block shipments of materials to both Armenia and
Karabakh and end up forcing Baku to go against the January decree
from Moscow. Armenians organize counter blockades against Nakhichevan.
Both sides have maintained their blockades off and on to the present.
November 1989: Moscow transfers control of Nagorno-Karabakh
to a committee of Azeris. Armenia objects, but without result.
The Karabakh Committee is dissolved at the convening of the Congress
of the Armenian Pan-National Movement in Erevan.
1 December 1989: Armenia declares Nagorno-Karabakh part of
a "unified Armenian republic." Moscow responds in January
by declaring the move unconstitutional.
The entire movement for Armenian independence has grown up from,
and out of the movement for unification with Nagorno-Karabakh.
Early 1990: Clashes between Azeris and Armenians
both on the borders of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia are frequent occurrences.
Displaced persons on both sides formed the core of the irregular fighting
units and have contributed to the rapid escalation of the fighting.
The Communist government of Azerbaijan establishes the legal justification
to act militarily to resolve the Karabakh crisis by declaring itself
a sovereign nation within the Soviet Union (subjugating Soviet law
to their own).
January 1990: An Armenian in Baku attacks two Azeris. The
response was quick and bloody as Azeri mobs killed 34 Armenians in
Baku. The disorder spreads quickly to other towns and Armenians renew
their exodus, fleeing Azerbaijani cities.
Soviet Interior Ministry troops respond by attempting to crush the
Azeri nationalist group, the Azerbaijani Popular Front, killing 130
in a massive operation to arrest its leaders.
May 1990: The Azerbaijani government announces that the 1989
census figures are inaccurate and are not valid. Armenians read this
as a pretext to forcibly remove them from Azerbaijan and to resettle
Azeri refugees from Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh.
In response, demonstrations break out in Armenia and Karabakh and
violence quickly ensues.
23 August 1990: A former activist in the Karabakh Committee
and Chairman of the Armenian Pan-National Movement, Levon Ter-Petrossian
is elected President of Armenia by the Armenian Supreme Soviet. He
moves to disarm the irregular Armenian forces in Armenia by mobilizing
them in the Armenian National Army (up to 140,000 men). The result
was minimal on the activities and the effective leadership of the
militias.
Armenia declares its sovereignty, establishing the Republic of Armenia.
Later they submit the issue of Armenian secession to a referendum
to be held September 21, 1991.
April 1991: Under the pretext of uprooting
Armenian guerillas, Soviet troops forcibly expel 10,000 Armenians
from Azerbaijan (outside Nagorno-Karabakh).
30 August 1991: Azerbaijan declares independence from Moscow,
but not before checking with Moscow to ensure that Soviet troops would
not pull out of the troubled areas before Azerbaijan could form a
national guard.
2 September 1991: The Armenian leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh
declare their oblast an independent Soviet Republic. They also announce
their willingness to use the constitutional procedures of the Soviet
Union to secede from the Union if necessary.
21 September 1991: The referendum on Armenian secession overwhelmingly
supports Armenian independence. 99.3% of the vote favors secession
and two days later Armenia declares independence.
21 December 1991: Armenia decides to join the Commonwealth
of Independent States (CIS) first established by Russia, Ukraine and
Belarus two weeks prior. Azerbaijan tentatively decides to join as
well.
6 January 1992: The Nagorno-Karabakh legislature
declares the independence of the Republic of Mountainous Karabakh.
January to April 1992: Serious widescale fighting engulfs
Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijani forces shell several towns in Karabakh
and reportedly attack towns in Armenia.
March 1992: As pressure mounts Azerbaijani President Mutalibov
resigns his post after receiving guarantees of safety and financial
security. A spokesman for the Azeri Popular Front (APF), the leading
opposition, denounces Mutalibov's decision to join the CIS. The current
Prime Minister, Gasanov, forms a coalition government with the APF
which announces it is reconsidering its membership in the CIS.
May 1992: Irregular Armenian forces attack the Azerbaijani
province of Nakhichevan in response to shelling of Armenian areas
across the border. In separate action they successfully open a corridor
between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh called the "Lachin Corridor."
This effectively weakens the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan.
8 May 1992: A ceasefire is signed between Azerbaijan and
Armenia, but this fails to be observed by either side.
June 1992: After the successful opening of the Lachin corridor,
Azerbaijani forces counterattack to the east of Karabakh, penetrating
deep into Nagorno-Karabakh. Later in the month they launch sporadic
attacks on the Lachin Corridor, but do not close it. Armenians claim
that elements of the Soviet 23rd and 295th divisions participated
in the attacks on behalf of the Azeris.
5 June 1992: Abulfez Elchibey is elected president of Azerbaijan.
July 1992: Azerbaijani attacks continue in Nagorno-Karabakh
with both sides making limited advances. 10,000 refugees are said
to have fled along the Lachin Corridor to Armenia since it was opened.
August 1992: Fighting continues unabated while the CSCE,
UN, United States, Russia, and Iran try to arrange truces. A Ukrainian
SU-25 pilot is shot down and captured in a bombing mission over Karabakh
(it should be noted that Nagorno-Karabakh is using Russians and others
as mercenaries as well). He is reportedly a mercenary, not a Ukrainian
military officer. Azerbaijani forces also capture the town of Ardsvashen
which is part of Armenia though it is surrounded by Azerbaijani territory
(it is separated from Armenia proper by about 10 kilometers of Azerbaijani
territory).
Armenian protesters hold mass demonstrations in Erevan demanding
the resignation of the government in response to the largescale military
losses and failure to provide decisive aid to Karabakh.
28 August 1992: Another ceasefire is signed (mediated by
Kazakhstan), but fails to take hold. The following month another attempt
at a ceasefire fails to be observed (that one mediated by Russia).
August - October 1992: After first voting to withdraw from
CIS barter agreements in August, the Azerbaijani parliament votes
43 to 1 to not join the CIS.
September - November 1992: An Azerbaijani offensive brings
them within 10 kilometers of Stepanakert (the capital) before being
pushed back. The Azeris also continue to pressure the Lachin Corridor,
but without being able to close it off. In October, the Armenians
of Karabakh successfully open a second corridor to Armenia south of
Lachin. Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani offensive continues and the shelling
of Armenian border villages also continues. Through the period each
side makes only minimal gains in territory.
December 1992: In December, the Azerbaijani forces launch
an attack on several Armenian districts penetrating considerably into
Armenian territory. Armenian President Ter-Petrossian protests the
incursions and calls for international action.
January - February 1993: Ethnic Azeris in Georgia
reportedly are responsible for sabotaging the last remaining energy
pipeline into Armenia. An explosion also destroys the last remaining
rail link for Armenia (into Georgia). Mass demonstrations against
Ter-Petrossian continue to call for his resignation.
4 February 1993: The State Defense Committee Chairman of
Karabakh meets in Erevan with Armenian officials. Officially they
discuss the upcoming CSCE talks.
5-22 February 1993: In a stunning turn around, a new Armenian
offensive captures 12 Azerbaijani-held villages and a strategically
important reservoir. An Azerbaijani counterattack with reinforcements
is repulsed by the Armenians. The Armenian gains allow them to push
the battles to the Azerbaijani town of Agdam. The Armenian forces
loot and burn the villages they take, reportedly in order to make
an uninhabitable zone around Karabakh and deter the return of Azeris.
March 1993: Talks over ending the conflict are fruitless
as Azerbaijan refuses to negotiate with the government of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Another Armenian offensive captures all of the territory between
Karabakh and Armenia. Villages are again looted and burned by the
Armenian forces.
May - July 1993: A CSCE plan for ending the conflict is accepted
by both the Azerbaijani and Armenian governments. The plan calls for
a 60 day ceasefire followed by a staged withdrawal of Karabakh forces
from the expanded Lachin Corridor under international supervision.
The plan is not accepted by the government in Karabakh until Ter-Petrossian
visits Karabakh to press for its acceptance. Meanwhile fighting erupts
around the Azeri city of Agdam as the Armenians press their gains.
They also advance towards the Azeri town of Fizuli just south of Nagorno-Karabakh.
June 1993: A rebel Azerbaijani army colonel, Surat Huseinov,
leads forces against government forces. He marches on Baku forcing
President Elchibey to flee the city. Geidar Aliyev, who was just elected
Parliament Chairman, assumes all presidential powers. Parliament votes
to back Huseinov, making him Prime Minister and elevates Aliyev to
the post of president.
July - August 1993: U. N. Security Council calls for Nagorno-Karabakh
forces to withdraw from recently captured Azerbaijani territory at
the behest of Turkey.
Nagorno-Karabakh forces continue their assault, gaining control
of Dzhebrail near the Iranian border. The Turkish Prime Minister and
Foreign Minister warn Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh to "rethink
their aggression."
A successful ceasefire negotiated between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan
is ended when the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry announces that the
Azerbaijani officials who negotiated the ceasefire with the government
of Nagorno-Karabakh had done so without permission. Azerbaijani artillery
attacks prompt further Armenian advances on the southern Azerbaijani
town of Fuzuli. In a related action, Armenian forces advance on the
southern Azerbaijani stronghold of Dzhebrail (about 14 kilometers
from the Iranian border).
October 1993: In Azerbaijani presidential election, parliamentary
chairman Geidar Aliyev wins with 98.8% of the vote in a vote that
was deemed "undemocratic" by Helsinki Watch.
An unstable ceasefire continues to hold between the combatants until
sporadic artillery exchanges escalated into open attacks. In the process,
the Azerbaijani forces were forced further south along the Araxes
River.
December 1993: Afghanistan confirms earlier reports that
it was supporting the Azerbaijani government in the conflict, including
military aid. It is also confirmed that Mujaheddin fighters are in
Azerbaijan as well.
After a period of relative calm, clashes erupt to the south and
to the north around Agdam.
Back
to the previous page
January - February 1994: In the renewed fighting,
Azerbaijani forces make limited advances on fronts to the south, northeast
and west. The fiercest fighting is in the west for the area around
Kalbajar, north of the Lachin Corridor.
January - April 1994: In a series of at least three assassinations,
prominent Armenian officials from both Armenia proper and Karabakh
are killed. Some of the officials are from the opposition party while
others represent the ruling coalition. It is not clear who is doing
the killing, but it seems plausible that the killings are related
to organized crime in Armenia, not to the conflict in Karabakh.
May 1994: Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan sign a
new peace plan, the Bishkek protocol. However, the plan cannot be
implemented until further negotiations are completed.
Azerbaijani repression of the opposition intensifies as opposition
facilities are seized (those of the Azeri Popular Front, the leading
opposition) and paramilitary forces attack another opposition party
(the National Independence Party). The opposition then forms the Movement
of National Resistance rallying around opposition to the recently
signed Bishkek peace plan.
March - June 1994: Fighting on the Armenian border and around
Karabakh continues. Artillery barrages on Armenian villages from Nakhichevan
open up once again. Officials in Nakhichevan claim that they are the
result of renegade units along the border trying to keep tensions
there high to avoid being sent to Karabakh.
3 July 1994: A bomb explodes on a train in Baku killing 7
Azeris and wounding 30 more. In a similar attack in March, 12 Azeris
were killed. It is uncertain who planted the bombs and why.
July - September 1994: Ceasefires are agreed to several times,
but are continually violated by both sides. Unofficial Turkish assistance
to Azerbaijani forces leads officials in Karabakh to threaten the
"ceasefires."
October - December 1994: As the relative calm continues in
Karabakh (due to the strained ceasefire), displaced Armenians begin
to return to their villages in Armenian-held territory. The government
of Nagorno-Karabakh provides assistance to those wishing to return
and continues with its plans for rebuilding destroyed villages and
structures (it has been doing so for about 6 months).
In December, Karabakh Supreme Council adopts a Law on the Presidency
establishing the post and later elects Chairman of State Defense Committee,
Robert Kocharian. This move seems to signal a partial return to "normalcy"
at least for the government of Nagorno-Karabakh.
January 1995: Karabakh officials report that
nearly 25,000 refugees have returned to Nagorno-Karabakh during 1994.
Azerbaijani forces are reportedly building up around Karabakh and
artillery attacks become more intense despite the ceasefire.
February - April 1995: No new offensives are launched, but
sporadic attacks continue along the front lines. In further moves
strengthening the Karabakh government, they establish a redevelopment
plan and economic reform plan. These moves appear to be strengthening
the position of Karabakh as a republic independent of both Azerbaijan
and Armenia. Ties between Karabakh and Armenia which had been strained
over the continued refusal of President Ter-Petrossian to overtly
assist Karabakh in the conflict have become more cordial over the
past year. The relations have taken on the appearance of equals as
agreements are signed forming closer economic ties between the two
republics.
April 1995: The International Committee of the Red Cross
reports that violations of the ceasefire have increased over the past
month.
May 1995: Open (and reportedly fair) elections are held for
the Karabakh parliament. 24 of 33 seats are filled in the first round
of voting and the remaining 9 seats are filled in the second round.
Voter turnout was 71% and nearly 80% in the two rounds respectively.
Russian parliamentary figures begin to call on Azerbaijan to extend
full diplomatic recognition to Nagorno Karabakh in order to bring
the conflict to a resolution.
August 1995: Russia continues to place considerable pressure
on Azerbaijan to join the defense arrangements of the CIS, thus allowing
them to station Russian military forces in Azerbaijan. President Aliyev
has requested assistance from Turkey, the OSCE and the United States
in resisting these pressures.
Azerbaijan has also concluded discussions with Turkey concerning
the desirability of oil pipelines which would run through both Turkey
and Georgia, thus excluding Russia in future dealings. Russia's relations
with both Armenia and Azerbaijan have soured over the past month or
so. Moscow newspapers have begun blasting the "authoritarian"
crackdown of the Ter-Petrossian regime.
In talks sponsored by the OSCE which excluded Karabakh officials,
Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan all agreed that the main sticking point
to progress at this time is the rigid position of the Karabakh government.
The Armenian government of Nagorno Karabakh has been insisting that
the political status of Karabakh be at the top of any negotiation
agenda.
Risk Assessment
At this point the conflict is in a holding pattern of negotiations
and intermittent shelling. Each side appears to be resting up and
there appears to be little common ground for a deal. The Azeris demand
return to the status quo ante, while the Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh
want to use their territorial gains to secure their independence and
links to Armenia. Long ago, the conflict entered a state of populist
and nationalistic fervor from which it is difficult for any leader
retreat. The government of Azerbaijan is under considerable domestic
pressure to regain lost territory. The main opposition, in both Armenia
and Azerbaijan, demands a harsher line and more fervent prosecution
of the war. The government of Nagorno Karabakh is made up of people
who have served on the front lines of the war and whose survival,
both in a mortal sense and in a political sense, depends on the maintenance
of their territorial gains.
It is unfortunate, but this conflict has many of the trappings of
a protracted and bloody conflict with no end in sight. If it is not
settled within the next six months, it will not be settled for a decade
at least. While there is a considerable democratic opposition in Azerbaijan,
there seems little chance for democratic reform without the use of
force. Without a solid, viable settlement soon, the rested and revitalized
forces on each side will likely open up the fighting with renewed
vigor.
In any case, the position of Armenians throughout the rest of Azerbaijan
(most of whom have familial ties to Azerbaijan) will continue to be
harassed and their lives threatened. The present government is making
an attempt to alleviate the problem, but the tide of anti-Armenian
feelings runs throughout the society at all levels. Most of the Azeris
forced out of Armenia have settled in Azerbaijan and have now spread
the folklore of their experiences into Azeri society. The hatred runs
deep in Azerbaijan. So too does the hatred of Azeris among Armenians
in Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia. The mob violence and outright persecution
of Armenians at the hands of Azeri citizens with complicity (and sometimes
outright assistance) of the government paints a picture all too reminiscent
of the "Genocide" at the hands of the Turks in 1915.
The only hope for this area is in the international community. The
attempts by mediators to this point have made considerable strides
and there is considerable interest in resolving the conflict in Moscow,
Tehran and even Turkey. Each of these larger powers have considerable
economic gains at stake once the conflict is resolved. Azerbaijan
is rich in oil and natural gas and all three powers want to help the
Azerbaijani government harness this energy and get it to market. Thus,
each has an interest in a peaceful and stable Azerbaijan (the extent
of the Russian interest is questionable though). While considerable
gains have been made, a long distance is yet to be traveled.
Back
to the previous page
References
Bremmer, Ian and Ray Taras, eds. Nations and Politics in the
Soviet Successor States (NY: Cambridge University Press) 1993.
Fuller, Elizabeth. "Between Anarchy and Depotism." Transition
(OMRI Special Issue, 1994 In Review, Part II) pp. 60 - 65.
____. "The Karabakh Mediation Process: Grashev versus the CSCE?"
RFE / RL Research Reports (10 June 1994) Vol. 3 (23): 13 -
17.
____. "Russia, Turkey, Iran and the Karabakh Mediation Process."
RFE / RL Research Reports (25 February 1994) Vol. 3 (8): 31
- 36.
Hovannisian, Richard G. "Historical Memory and Foreign Relations:
The Armenian Perspective." Paper presented at the Russian Littoral
Project Conference, "The Influence of History on Russian Foreign
Policies of Central Asia and the Caucasus" May 1993, Paper No.
7.
Monitor. A daily digest published by the Jamestown Foundation.
Olson, James S. ed. An Ethnohistorical Dictionary of the Russian
and Soviet Empires (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press) 1994.
Open Media Research Institute. Daily Reports.
Prism. A weekly electronic journal published by the Jamestown Foundation.
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty. Daily Reports.
"Report on Ethnic Conflict in the Russian Federation and Transcaucasia."
From the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project at the John
F. Kennedy School of Government (July 1993).
Richter, Anthony. "The Perils of 'Sustainable Empire."
Transition (OMRI 15 March 1995) Vol. 1 (3): 14 - 15.
Smith, Graham, ed. The Nationalities Question in the Soviet Union
(New York: The Longman Group) 1990.
Swietochowski, Tadeusz. "Azerbaijan: A Borderland at the Crossroads
of History." Paper presented at the Russian Littoral Project
Conference, "The Influence of History on Russian Foreign Policies
of Central Asia and the Caucasus" May 1993, Paper No. 8.
TransCaucasus: A Chronology (A publication of the Armenian
National Committee of America) Vols. 1 - 4 (1992 - 1995).
United Nations Information Service release on Azerbaijan. Accesses
via the United Nations Home Page on the World Wide Web.
United States Committee for Refugees. 1995 World Refugee Survey.
pages 124 and 126.
U. S. State Department. Human Rights Report: Armenia. 1994 and 1995.
U. S. State Department. Human Rights Report: Azerbaijan. 1994 and
1995.
Young, Stephen, Ronald J. Bee and Bruce Seymore II. One Nation
Becomes Many: The ACCESS Guide to the Former Soviet Union (Washington,
DC: ACCESS) 1992.
Back
to the previous page
